# Mental Models Daily

> Plain-English explanations of 365 mental models, cognitive biases and logical fallacies, sorted by the situation they help with (decisions, risk, people, work, strategy, evidence, your own mind, fixing problems). Each model has its own page with a definition, how to use it, two example stories and related models. Also a weekly podcast and YouTube show, two books on Amazon and a card deck.

## Start here

- [The complete list of mental models](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/mental-models/): all 365, with one-line meanings
- [Cognitive biases and logical fallacies](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/cognitive-biases/): a list with examples
- [Explore by situation](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/explore/)
- [Today's mental model](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/today/)
- [Podcast](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/podcast/): one model explained each week, with stories

## Books and cards

- [The Mental Models Daily Almanac](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/almanac/): all 365 mental models, one page each, with two stories for each (paperback and Kindle, on Amazon)
- [The Mental Models Daily Workbook](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/workbook/): 60 thinking tools for better decisions, with practice pages (paperback and Kindle, on Amazon)
- [The Mental Models Daily Core Deck](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/deck/): 60 mental models on tarot-size cards

## Decisions: Which way should I go?

- [A/B Testing](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/a-b-testing/): When opinions clash, change one thing and let real behaviour decide.
- [Back-of-the-Envelope Calculation](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/back-of-the-envelope-calculation/): A rough answer in five minutes often beats a precise one next month.
- [Cost-Benefit Analysis](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/cost-benefit-analysis/): Count everything a choice will cost and everything it will give, not just what is easy to see.
- [Decision Tree](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/decision-tree/): Draw your choices as branches, and the questions that really matter come into view.
- [Law of Diminishing Marginal Utility](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/law-of-diminishing-marginal-utility/): Each extra helping of a good thing gives you a little less than the one before.
- [Opportunity Costs](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/opportunity-costs/): The true price of any choice is the best thing you gave up to make it.
- [Pro-Con List](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/pro-con-list/): Getting reasons onto paper, and weighing them, beats juggling them in your head.
- [Sensitivity Analysis](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/sensitivity-analysis/): Not all assumptions are equal: find the few that swing the whole result.
- [Utilitarianism](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/utilitarianism/): Judge an action by its consequences for everyone it touches.
- [Utility Values](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/utility-values/): Value lives in the person, not the object, so the same thing is worth different amounts to different people.
- [Veil of Ignorance](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/veil-of-ignorance/): Write the rules as if you did not know which seat you would get.
- [Discount Rate](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/discount-rate/): How much the future counts today depends on one number, and small changes in it flip big decisions.
- [Inflation](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/inflation/): Money quietly loses value over time, so plans set in fixed amounts slowly shrink.
- [Net Present Value](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/net-present-value/): Money has a timestamp: compare what something costs today with what its future returns are worth today.
- [Switching Costs](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/switching-costs/): The effort of changing keeps people where they are, even when something better exists.
- [Counterfactual Thinking](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/counterfactual-thinking/): To know what made a difference, ask what would have happened without it.
- [Exit Strategy](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/exit-strategy/): The best time to plan your way out is before you go in.
- [OODA Loop](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/ooda-loop/): Whoever observes, makes sense, decides and acts faster can adapt while others are still catching up.
- [Second-Order Thinking](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/second-third-order-thinking/): Every action has consequences, and those consequences have consequences of their own.
- [Thought Experiment](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/thought-experiment/): Careful imagination can test an idea before it costs you anything.
- [Analysis Paralysis](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/analysis-paralysis/): Waiting for perfect information can cost more than acting on good enough.
- [False Dilemma](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/false-dilemma/): When a choice is framed as either-or, the best option is often the one nobody mentioned.
- [Grey Thinking](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/grey-thinking/): Most important questions have no clean right side, and the best answers often sit between the extremes.
- [Hick’s Law](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/hick-s-law/): The more options you face, the longer it takes to choose.
- [Information Overload](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/information-overload/): Past a certain point, more information buries the one signal that matters.
- [Paradox of Choice](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/paradox-of-choice/): Some choice makes us free; too much choice makes us anxious and less satisfied.
- [Satisficing](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/satisficing/): Set a bar for good enough, and stop searching when something clears it.
- [Tendency to Want to Do Something](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/tendency-to-want-to-do-something/): We feel driven to act, even when waiting would serve us better.
- [Burn the Boats](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/burn-the-boats/): Removing the way back can turn a hesitant effort into total commitment.
- [Circle of Competence](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/circle-of-competence/): Knowing where your knowledge ends matters more than how far it reaches.
- [Devil’s Advocate Position](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/devil-s-advocate-position/): An idea worth backing should survive someone arguing hard against it.
- [Nuclear Option](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/nuclear-option/): The most extreme move can settle a fight, but its damage may outlast the problem it solved.
- [Pyrrhic Victory](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/pyrrhic-victory/): A win that costs too much can leave you worse off than losing.
- [Sunk Cost Fallacy](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/sunk-cost-fallacy/): What you have already spent is gone, so it should not decide what you do next.
- [Winner’s Curse](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/winner-s-curse/): In a contest over an uncertain prize, the winner is often whoever overestimated it most.

## Risk: What could go wrong, and what will I do if it does?

- [Expected Value](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/expected-value/): A choice is worth its average result across all the ways it could turn out.
- [Fat-Tailed Distributions](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/fat-tailed-distributions/): In some areas, extreme events are far more common than the bell curve says.
- [Foxes vs Hedgehogs](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/foxes-vs-hedgehogs/): Some minds know many things, others one big thing, and each has its blind spot.
- [Law of Large Numbers](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/law-of-large-numbers/): Luck is wild in small samples and predictable in large ones.
- [Lindy Effect](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/lindy-effect/): For things that do not wear out, every year survived predicts more years to come.
- [Monte Carlo Simulation](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/monte-carlo-simulation/): When odds are too tangled to calculate, play the future many times and count.
- [Prediction Market](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/prediction-market/): When people must pay for being wrong, their forecasts get sharper.
- [Probabilistic Thinking](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/probabilistic-thinking/): The future is a spread of possible outcomes, each with its own odds.
- [Randomness](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/randomness/): Much of life is chance, and our minds invent patterns that are not there.
- [Super Forecasters](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/super-forecasters/): Good prediction comes less from genius than from habits anyone can learn.
- [Availability Bias](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/availability-bias/): What comes to mind easily feels likely, whether or not it is.
- [Conjunction Fallacy](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/conjunction-fallacy/): Every added detail makes a story more convincing and less likely.
- [Gambler’s Fallacy](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/gambler-s-fallacy/): Chance keeps no score, so nothing is ever due.
- [Hot-Hand Fallacy](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/hot-hand-fallacy/): A winning streak feels like momentum, but it is often luck on a good run.
- [Monte Carlo Fallacy](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/monte-carlo-fallacy/): A roulette wheel has no memory, however long the streak.
- [Mr Market](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/mr-market/): The market is a moody partner: use its offers, never its moods.
- [Prospect Theory](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/prospect-theory/): Losses hurt about twice as much as equal gains please, and that bends our choices.
- [Black Swan Event](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/black-swan-event/): What matters most is often what nobody saw coming.
- [Boiling Frog](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/boiling-frog/): The most dangerous changes are often the slowest ones.
- [Butterfly Effect](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/butterfly-effect/): In a complex system, a tiny change at the start can grow into a huge difference at the end.
- [Chaos Theory](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/chaos-theory/): Some systems follow exact rules yet still cannot be predicted far ahead.
- [Murphy’s Law](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/murphy-s-law/): If something can go wrong, given enough time and people, it eventually will.
- [Peak](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/peak/): Most rises top out, and the top is the hardest place to see it from.
- [Unknown Unknowns](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/unknown-unknowns/): The biggest risks are often the ones missing from your list.
- [Antifragility](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/antifragile-robustness/): Some things break under stress, some resist it, and some grow stronger from it.
- [De-Risking](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/de-risking/): You can keep most of the upside while cutting the risk of ruin.
- [Margin of Safety](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/margin-of-safety/): Build in a buffer, so that being wrong is not a catastrophe.
- [Moral Hazard](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/moral-hazard/): People take bigger risks when someone else will pay if things go wrong.
- [Preserving Optionality](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/preserving-optionality/): When the future is unclear, the right to choose later is worth paying for.
- [Resilience](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/resilience/): Setbacks are certain; collapse is not, if you prepare to recover.
- [Scenario Analysis](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/scenario-analysis/): Rehearse several futures, so whichever one arrives feels familiar.
- [Stop the Bleeding](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/stop-the-bleeding/): When losses mount, halt them first and plan the recovery after.

## People: Why do people act as they do, and how do I work with them?

- [Frame of Reference](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/frame-of-reference/): Every judgement is measured against something; change the baseline and the answer can change.
- [High Context vs Low Context](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/high-context-vs-low-context/): Some cultures put the meaning in the words; others leave it in the relationship and the silence.
- [Introverts vs Extroverts](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/introverts-vs-extroverts/): People differ in where they find their energy, and good teams make room for both kinds.
- [IQ vs EQ](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/iq-vs-eq/): Being clever and being wise with people are different strengths, and big decisions need both.
- [Language Instinct](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/language-instinct/): Children are born ready for language, and some abilities grow best through use, not drills.
- [Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/maslow-s-hierarchy-of-needs/): Unmet basic needs drown out higher ones, so check the foundations before blaming motivation.
- [Peak-end Rule](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/peak-end-rule/): We remember an experience by its most intense moment and its ending, not by its length.
- [Theory of Mind](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/theory-of-mind/): Other people act on what they know and believe, not on what you know.
- [False Consensus Effect](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/false-consensus-effect/): We think far more people share our views and choices than really do.
- [Fundamental Attribution Error](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/fundamental-attribution-error/): We blame people’s character for their behaviour and forget the situation pushing them.
- [Halo Effect](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/halo-effect/): One shining quality makes us rate everything else about a person or product higher.
- [Hanlon’s Razor](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/hanlon-s-razor/): Never put down to malice what can be explained by mistake, muddle or accident.
- [Horn Effect](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/horn-effect/): One bad impression can cast a shadow over everything else we see in someone.
- [In-Group Favouritism](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/in-group-favoritism/): We give more trust, help and reward to people we see as our own, even when the group means nothing.
- [Most Respectable Interpretation](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/most-respectable-interpretation-mri/): Read other people’s words in the most reasonable light first; the harshest reading is rarely right.
- [Out-Group Bias](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/out-group-bias/): We judge outsiders more harshly, and a simple team name is enough to start it.
- [Liking and Loving Tendency](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/tendency-to-liking-loving/): Once we like someone or something, we overlook its flaws and overrate its merits.
- [Anchoring](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/anchoring/): The first number we hear quietly steers every judgement that follows.
- [Backfire Effect](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/backfire-effect/): Facts thrown at a cherished belief can make people hold it tighter.
- [Bait and Switch](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/bait-and-switch/): An offer built to change once you are committed is not the offer you are buying.
- [Dark Patterns](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/dark-patterns/): Design can quietly steer you into choices you never meant to make.
- [Framing](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/framing/): The same facts can lead to opposite choices, depending on how they are presented.
- [Nudging](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/nudging/): Small changes in how choices are arranged can change what people choose, without forbidding anything.
- [Reciprocity](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/reciprocity/): We feel a strong pull to return what we are given, kindness and harm alike.
- [Social Proof](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/social-proof/): When we are unsure what to do, we copy what other people are doing.
- [Streisand Effect](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/streisand-effect/): Trying to hide something often makes far more people look at it.
- [Winning Hearts and Minds](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/winning-hearts-and-minds/): Lasting support comes from meeting people’s real needs, not from forcing them to comply.
- [Appeasement](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/appeasement/): Giving in to keep the peace can invite bigger demands later.
- [Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/best-alternative-to-a-negotiated-agreement-batna/): Your power in a deal comes from what you will do if the deal fails.
- [Call Your Bluff](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/call-your-bluff/): Many threats are cheaper to make than to carry out, so test them before you fold.
- [Deterrence](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/deterrence/): A threat that others believe you will carry out can stop a fight before it starts.
- [Mutually Assured Destruction](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/mutually-assured-destruction/): When both sides can destroy each other, neither dares to strike first.
- [Polarity](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/polarity/): Once an issue grows two charged ends, everything gets pulled towards one or the other.
- [Redline](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/redline/): A limit decided in advance stops you giving ground one small step at a time.
- [Sayre’s Law](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/sayre-s-law/): The smaller the stakes, the more bitter the fight can become.
- [Strawman Fallacy](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/strawman-fallacy/): Beating a weaker version of someone’s argument proves nothing about the real one.
- [Trojan Horse](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/trojan-horse/): The most dangerous threats often arrive looking like gifts.
- [Zero-Sum vs Win-Win](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/zero-sum-vs-win-win/): Many contests that look like fights over a fixed pie are chances to grow it.
- [Cooperation](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/cooperation/): Together, with the right rules, we can do what none of us could do alone.
- [Free Rider Problem](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/free-rider-problem/): If people can benefit without paying, many will let others pay.
- [Game Theory](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/game-theory/): Your best move often depends on what others will do, and on what they expect you to do.
- [Pirate Code](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/pirate-code/): Every group runs on rules of its own, and they predict behaviour better than the official ones.
- [Prisoner’s Dilemma](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/prisoner-s-dilemma/): Choices that are sensible for each person can add up to a worse result for everyone.
- [Social Norms vs Market Norms](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/social-norms-vs-market-norms/): Putting a price on goodwill can make people care less, not more.
- [Tit for Tat](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/tit-for-tat/): Start kind, answer in kind, forgive quickly, and others learn to cooperate with you.
- [Tragedy of the Commons](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/tragedy-of-the-commons/): A resource everyone can use and no one looks after tends to be used up.
- [Trust](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/trust/): Trust lets us cooperate without watching every move, but it lasts only when betrayal has a cost.
- [Carrot and Stick](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/carrot-and-stick/): Rewards and punishments change behaviour, but not always the way you planned.
- [Distributive Justice vs Procedural Justice](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/distributive-justice-vs-procedural-justice/): People can accept losing under fair rules, but resent even a good result reached unfairly.
- [Golem Effect](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/golem-effect/): Low expectations can drag people down to meet them.
- [Managing to the Person](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/managing-to-the-person/): People differ, so the best way to lead each of them differs too.
- [Peter Principle](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/peter-principle/): People tend to be promoted until they reach a job they cannot do well.
- [Principal-Agent Problem](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/principal-agent-problem/): When someone acts for you, their interests and yours may quietly part ways.
- [Pygmalion Effect](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/pygmalion-effect-rosenthal-effect/): High expectations can lift people up to meet them.
- [Bystander Effect](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/bystander-effect/): The more people who see a problem, the less likely any one of them is to act.
- [Chilling Effect](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/chilling-effect/): Punish a few people visibly, and many more will silence themselves.
- [Dunbar’s Number](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/dunbar-s-number/): We can keep up only about 150 real relationships at once.
- [Groupthink](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/group-think/): A group that values harmony over honesty can talk itself into disaster.
- [Hierarchical Organisation](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/hierarchical-organization/): Layers of command let large groups act as one, at the cost of speed and candour.
- [Power Vacuum](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/power-vacuum/): When authority disappears, someone always rushes to fill the gap, often not who you would choose.

## Work: How do I get the right things done?

- [Activation Energy](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/activation-energy/): Good things often fail to happen not because they are hard, but because starting is.
- [Catalysts](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/catalysts/): The right spark can make change happen faster, without doing the work itself.
- [Compounding Effect](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/compounding-effect/): Gains that build on earlier gains grow slowly, then dramatically.
- [Conditioning](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/conditioning-pavlovian-association/): A signal paired often with something that matters comes to trigger the feeling alone.
- [Dopamine Loop](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/dopamine-loop/): The brain learns most from surprise rewards, and chases the cues that predict them.
- [Forcing Function](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/forcing-function/): Shape the situation so the right action becomes the easiest, or the only, path.
- [Inertia](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/inertia/): People and organisations keep moving along their current path until a real force makes them change.
- [Momentum](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/momentum/): Progress builds on itself: early wins make the next ones easier, and slides gather speed too.
- [Bikeshedding](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/bikeshedding/): Groups spend the most time on what everyone understands, and the least on what matters.
- [Law of Diminishing Returns](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/law-of-diminishing-returns/): Adding more of one thing eventually buys less each time, and can make things worse.
- [Leverage](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/leverage/): A small force in the right place can move a great weight, for better or worse.
- [Manager’s Schedule vs Maker’s Schedule](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/manager-s-schedule-vs-maker-s-schedule/): One meeting costs a manager an hour, and a maker half a day.
- [Pareto Principle](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/pareto-principle/): A small share of causes usually produces most of the results.
- [Top of Your Mind](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/top-of-your-mind/): Whatever you think about in idle moments gets hours of free work.
- [Two-Front War](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/two-front-war/): Fighting two battles at once often means losing both.
- [Tyranny of Small Decisions](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/tyranny-of-small-decisions/): Many small, sensible choices can add up to a result nobody wanted.
- [Velocity](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/velocity/): Progress is speed with direction; being busy is not the same as moving forward.
- [Hofstadter’s Law](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/hofstadter-s-law/): It always takes longer than you expect, even when you allow for that.
- [Minimum Viable Product](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/minimum-viable-product-mvp/): Build the smallest thing that works, then learn before investing more.
- [Mythical Man-Month](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/mythical-man-month/): Adding people to a late project usually makes it later.
- [Perfect is the Enemy of Good](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/perfect-is-the-enemy-of-good/): Waiting for the ideal can cost you the useful.
- [Premature Optimisation](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/premature-optimization/): Polishing before you understand wastes effort and locks in mistakes.
- [Unforced Error](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/unforced-error/): Many of our worst setbacks are mistakes nobody forced us to make.
- [Algorithms](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/algorithms/): Clear steps solve a problem the same way every time.
- [Boots on the Ground](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/boots-on-the-ground/): To understand or change a place, you have to be there.
- [Cargo Cult](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/cargo-cult/): Copying the look of success rarely delivers the real thing.
- [Commandos](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/commandos/): Different stages of growth need different kinds of people.
- [Crowdsourcing](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/crowdsourcing/): Many people, each giving a little, can solve what a few experts cannot.
- [Directly Responsible Individuals](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/directly-responsible-individuals/): Every outcome needs one named owner, or it becomes nobody’s job.
- [Divide and Conquer](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/divide-and-conquer/): Split a big opponent or problem into parts you can handle one at a time.
- [Double-Entry Bookkeeping](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/double-entry-bookkeeping/): Every transaction has two sides, and recording both keeps the books honest.
- [Entropy](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/entropy/): Left alone, things drift towards disorder; order has to be paid for.
- [Institutional Knowledge](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/institutional-knowledge/): Much of what an organisation knows lives in people, not documents.
- [Parallel Processing](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/parallel-processing/): Split work into parts that can run at once, and finish sooner.
- [Replication](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/replication/): Copying lets one success spread far, and it spreads the flaws just as faithfully.
- [Comparative Advantage](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/comparative-advantage/): Do what costs you least to do, even if you are best at everything.
- [Deliberate Practice](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/deliberate-practice/): Skill grows from focused work on weaknesses, not from hours alone.
- [Divergent Thinking vs Convergent Thinking](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/divergent-thinking-vs-convergent-thinking/): Open up the options, then close them down.
- [Generalist vs Specialists](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/generalist-vs-specialists/): Breadth helps you adapt; depth helps you excel. The mix depends on your world.
- [Potential Energy](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/potential-energy/): Stillness is not emptiness: value can be stored, waiting to be released.
- [Resonant Frequency](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/resonant-frequency/): Small pushes in the right rhythm can build into enormous effects.
- [Spacing Effect](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/spacing-effect/): We remember more when learning is spread out than when it is crammed.
- [Specialisation](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/specialization/): Focusing on a narrow task makes each person far more productive.

## Strategy: How do I win when others want the same thing?

- [Barriers to Entry](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/barriers-to-entry/): The harder a market is to enter, the longer those already inside can keep their profits.
- [Center of Gravity](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/center-of-gravity/): Find the one point everything depends on, then protect it or aim there.
- [Economies of Scale](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/economies-of-scale/): When fixed costs are spread over more units, each one becomes cheaper to make.
- [Moats](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/moats/): Lasting success needs a structural defence, not just a moment of brilliance.
- [Niches](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/niches/): You don’t have to win everywhere; fit one need better than anyone else.
- [Punching Above Your Weight](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/punching-above-your-weight/): Resources set the odds, but a smaller side can win by choosing where to fight.
- [Secrets](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/secrets/): The most valuable insights are important truths that most people do not yet believe.
- [Seizing the Middle](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/seizing-the-middle/): Whoever controls the point that everything must pass through holds power beyond their size.
- [Sustainable Competitive Advantage](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/sustainable-competitive-advantage/): An edge only matters for long if rivals cannot copy it quickly.
- [Trademarks](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/trademarks/): A distinctive sign becomes a promise that customers learn to trust at a glance.
- [Adverse Selection](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/adverse-selection/): When one side knows more about quality than the other, the best tend to leave and the worst stay.
- [Apostle Model](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/apostle-model/): Satisfied customers drift away; only delighted ones bring others with them.
- [Churn](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/churn/): Growth means little if customers leave as fast as they arrive.
- [Customer Development](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/customer-development/): Treat every idea about customers as a guess, and test it with real people early.
- [Jobs to be Done](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/jobs-to-be-done/): People do not buy products; they hire them to make progress in their lives.
- [Lock-in](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/lock-in/): Today’s convenient choice can become tomorrow’s trap when leaving costs too much.
- [Loss Leader Strategy](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/loss-leader-strategy/): A price can be a doorway, not a destination: the bargain is meant to lead you somewhere.
- [Loyalists vs Mercenaries](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/loyalists-vs-mercenaries/): Discounts buy attention quickly, but they rarely buy commitment.
- [Personas](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/personas/): You design better for people when you picture a specific person rather than “users”.
- [Pivot](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/pivot/): Change direction on what you have learned, while keeping what you are good at.
- [Product/Market Fit](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/product-market-fit/): When something truly meets a pressing need, people pull it towards them.
- [Crossing the Chasm](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/crossing-the-chasm/): What enthusiasts love, the mainstream still needs to see proven, complete and recommended.
- [First Mover Advantage](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/first-mover-advantage/): Arriving first can be worth a fortune, but only if you can defend the lead.
- [Flywheel](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/flywheel/): Many small pushes in the same direction build momentum that one big heave never could.
- [Long Tail](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/long-tail/): When shelf space is unlimited, many small niches can add up to more than a few hits.
- [Metcalfe’s Law](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/metcalfe-s-law/): The value of a network grows much faster than the number of people in it.
- [Network Effects](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/network-effects/): Some products become more valuable every time another person starts using them.
- [Power Law](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/power-law/): In many areas, a few things account for most of the results.
- [S-Curves](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/s-curves/): New ideas spread slowly, then suddenly, then slowly again as the market fills.
- [Supply and Demand](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/supply-and-demand/): Prices rise when more people want something than there is to go round, and fall when there is plenty.
- [Technology Adoption Lifecycle](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/technology-adoption-lifecycle/): People take up new things at different speeds, and each group needs a different reason to join.
- [Winner Takes Most Markets](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/winner-takes-most-markets/): When being biggest makes you more attractive, a small early lead can become lasting dominance.
- [Creative Destruction](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/creative-destruction/): New ways of doing things grow by tearing down the old ones.
- [Cultural Evolution](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/cultural-evolution/): Ideas, habits and tools evolve like living things, only faster: the useful spread and the rest fade.
- [Disruptive Innovations](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/disruptive-innovations/): Giants are often toppled by cheap, simple newcomers they once thought too small to matter.
- [Generals Fighting the Last War](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/generals-fighting-the-last-war/): The lessons of the last battle can leave you perfectly prepared for a fight that never comes.
- [Natural Selection](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/natural-selection/): The environment decides what thrives, and when it changes, so do the winners.
- [Only the Paranoid Survive](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/only-the-paranoid-survive/): Success breeds complacency, so look hardest for threats when things are going well.
- [Paradigm Shift](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/paradigm-shift/): Sometimes a whole field’s basic assumptions are wrong, and progress means replacing the frame.
- [Red Queen Effect](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/red-queen-effect-adaptation/): When everyone else keeps improving, you must keep running to stay in place.
- [Survival of the Fittest](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/survival-of-the-fittest/): Success goes not to the strongest, but to whoever best fits the conditions.
- [Arbitrage](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/arbitrage/): When the same thing sells for different prices in different places, someone profits from closing the gap.
- [Idea Maze](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/idea-maze/): Breakthroughs come from exploring many paths and learning from every dead end.
- [Joy’s Law](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/joy-s-law/): However strong your team, most of the smartest people work for someone else.
- [Local Optimum vs Global Optimum](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/local-optimum-vs-global-optimum/): Being the best in your neighbourhood can stop you finding a much higher peak beyond it.
- [Luck Surface Area](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/luck-surface-area/): You cannot control luck, but you can widen the area it can land on.
- [Simultaneous Invention](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/simultaneous-invention/): When the conditions are right, several people often reach the same idea at once.
- [Arms Race](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/arms-race/): When rivals keep matching each other’s build-up, both spend more and neither ends up safer.
- [Asymmetric Warfare](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/asymmetric-warfare/): A weaker side wins by refusing to fight on the stronger side’s terms.
- [Beachhead Strategy](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/beachhead-strategy/): Win one small, defensible position first, then use it to push further.
- [Counter-Insurgency](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/counter-insurgency/): Persistent resistance is fed by something, and cutting off that supply works better than force alone.
- [Flypaper Theory](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/flypaper-theory/): Draw a threat to a place of your choosing, and it stays away from what matters most.
- [Guerrilla Warfare](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/guerrilla-warfare/): A small, nimble player can beat a giant by choosing where, when and how to fight.
- [Nash Equilibrium](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/nash-equilibrium/): A stable outcome is one where nobody gains by changing course alone, even if all would gain together.
- [Strategy vs Tactics](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/strategy-vs-tactics/): Brilliant moves cannot rescue a weak plan, and a good plan fails without good moves.
- [War of Attrition](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/war-of-attrition/): Some contests are won not by the best blow, but by whoever can last the longest.

## Evidence: Is this really true?

- [Base Rate Fallacy](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/base-rate-fallacy/): A vivid detail means little until you know how common the outcome is in general.
- [Bayes’ Theorem](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/bayes-theorem/): Change your mind in proportion to the evidence: a lot for strong clues, a little for weak ones.
- [Central Limit Theorem](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/central-limit-theorem/): Average enough random pieces and the averages settle into a predictable bell shape.
- [Conditional Probability](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/conditional-probability/): Odds are never fixed: they change the moment you learn something new.
- [Confidence Interval](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/confidence-interval/): The honest answer to many questions is a range, not a single number.
- [Distributions](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/distributions/): A single number hides the shape of the spread, and the shape often matters more.
- [Error Bars](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/error-bars/): Every number comes with a margin of doubt, whether or not anyone draws it.
- [Frequentists vs Bayesians](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/frequentists-vs-bayesians/): Probability can mean how often something happens, or how strongly you believe it will.
- [Mean, Median and Mode](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/mean-median-mode/): “Typical” can mean three different numbers, and each one tells a different story.
- [Normal Distribution](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/normal-distribution/): Most things cluster around the middle, but the bell curve makes extremes look rarer than they are.
- [Probability Distribution](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/probability-distribution/): Good decisions weigh everything that could happen, not just the single most likely outcome.
- [Regression to the Mean](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/regression-to-the-mean/): Extreme results tend to be followed by ordinary ones, because luck rarely repeats itself.
- [Standard Deviation](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/standard-deviation/): An average tells you the centre; the spread tells you how much to trust it.
- [Variance](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/variance/): Every process wobbles; the skill is telling ordinary wobble from a real warning sign.
- [False Negative](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/false-negative/): A clean result should lower your concern, not end it.
- [False Positive](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/false-positive/): An alarm is a question, not an answer.
- [Falsification](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/falsification/): Trying to prove yourself wrong is the surest route to finding out what is right.
- [Hypothesis](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/hypothesis/): A good guess is one that reality can prove wrong.
- [Inductive Reasoning](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/inductive-reasoning/): Experience suggests what will happen next, but it can never promise it.
- [Meta-Analysis](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/meta-analyses/): Many small, uncertain studies, pooled together, can give one clear answer.
- [Null Hypothesis](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/null-hypothesis/): Assume a claim does nothing until the evidence forces you to think otherwise.
- [Occam’s Razor](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/occam-s-razor/): When explanations compete, start with the simplest one that fits the facts.
- [P-Values](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/p-values/): A small p-value says a result would be surprising by chance, not that an idea is true.
- [Placebo Effect](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/placebo-effect/): Belief and care can make people feel better, even when the treatment itself does nothing.
- [Randomised Controlled Experiments](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/randomized-controlled-experiments/): Let chance decide who gets the treatment, and any difference left is the treatment’s doing.
- [Scientific Method](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/scientific-method/): Let evidence, not authority or wishful thinking, decide what you believe.
- [Statistical Significance](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/statistical-significance/): A significant result is one that chance alone would rarely produce; it need not be big.
- [Systematic Review](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/systematic-review/): To know what the evidence says, gather all of it by rules set in advance.
- [Causal Fallacy](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/causal-fallacy/): Two things happening together is not proof that one caused the other.
- [Clustering Illusion](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/clustering-illusion/): Randomness is lumpier than we expect, so we see patterns where there are none.
- [Confounding Factor](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/confounding-factor/): When two things move together, a hidden third factor may be pulling both strings.
- [Correlation and Causation](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/correlation-causation/): Patterns are where good questions begin, not where they end.
- [Regression Fallacy](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/regression-fallacy/): Inventing a cause for a return to normal is one of the commonest mistakes we make.
- [Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/texas-sharpshooter-fallacy/): Draw the target after the shots and every shooter looks like a marksman.
- [Anecdotal Evidence](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/anecdotal-evidence/): A vivid story shows that something happened once, never how often it works.
- [Data Dredging](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/data-dredging/): Search enough data and some pattern will always turn up, by chance alone.
- [Hasty Generalisation](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/hasty-generalization/): A few examples, however vivid, are not enough to support a sweeping rule.
- [Non-Response Bias](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/non-response-bias/): The people who stay silent can change the answer as much as those who reply.
- [Overgeneralising from Small Samples](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/overgeneralizing-from-small-samples/): Small samples swing wildly by chance, so their patterns often vanish when you look again.
- [Publication Bias](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/publication-bias/): The studies we read are often the lucky survivors of all the studies that were run.
- [Replication Crisis](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/replication-crisis/): A finding earns trust only when others repeat the work and get the same result.
- [Response Bias](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/response-bias/): What people say about themselves often reflects how they want to appear, not what they do.
- [Selection Bias](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/selection-bias/): How you choose a sample can decide the answer before you ask a single question.
- [Survivorship Bias](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/survivorship-bias/): When failures vanish from view, the survivors look like the whole story.
- [Ad Hominem](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/ad-hominem/): An argument does not become false because you dislike the person making it.
- [Appeal to Authority](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/appeal-to-authority/): A famous name or senior title is not evidence; ask how they know.
- [Appeal to Emotion](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/appeal-to-emotion/): Strong feelings can carry an argument that the facts alone would never support.
- [Appeal to Ignorance](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/appeal-to-ignorance/): No evidence of harm is not evidence of no harm, unless someone has really looked.
- [Appeal to Pity](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/appeal-to-pity/): A sad story can stir real sympathy and still have nothing to do with the question.
- [Bandwagon Fallacy](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/bandwagon-fallacy-argumentum-ad-populum/): How many people believe something tells you about its popularity, not its truth.
- [Black and White Fallacy](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/black-and-white-fallacy/): Most real choices have more than the two options on offer.
- [Circular Argument](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/circular-argument/): A claim cannot be its own proof, however smoothly it is restated.
- [Equivocation](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/equivocation/): A statement can be technically true and still built to mislead.
- [Non Sequitur](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/non-sequitur/): True facts can still be strung together into a conclusion that does not follow.
- [Red Herring Fallacy](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/red-herring-fallacy/): The most persuasive answer is sometimes an answer to a different question.
- [Slippery Slope](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/slippery-slope/): A first step does not lead to disaster unless every link in the chain holds.
- [Tu Quoque](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/tu-quoque/): Pointing out that a critic does the same thing does not make the criticism wrong.
- [Bias from Incentives](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/bias-from-incentives/): When pay or status depends on a conclusion, people tend to reach it, sincerely.
- [Echo Chambers](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/echo-chambers/): Surrounded only by people who agree, our views grow more extreme and more certain.
- [Filter Bubble](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/filter-bubble/): A feed that learns what you like can quietly shrink your view of the world.
- [Garbage In Garbage Out](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/garbage-in-garbage-out/): No system, however clever, can produce better answers than the information it is given.
- [Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/heisenberg-uncertainty-principle/): Some things cannot be pinned down at once, and looking closely can change what you see.
- [Narrative Instinct](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/narrative-instinct/): We turn events into stories, and often see intention and meaning where there is only chance.
- [Observer Effect](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/observer-effect/): Watching people or systems changes how they behave.
- [Potemkin Village](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/potemkin-village/): An impressive front can be built precisely to hide what is behind it.
- [Proxy](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/proxy/): A stand-in measure is only useful while it moves in step with what really matters.
- [The Map is not the Territory](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/the-map-is-not-the-territory/): Every model is a simplification, and when it disagrees with reality, reality wins.
- [Zombie Ideas](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/zombie-ideas/): Some ideas keep walking long after the evidence has killed them.

## Your own mind: Is my own thinking leading me astray?

- [Blind Spot Bias](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/blind-spot-bias/): We see bias clearly in other people and hardly at all in ourselves.
- [Cognitive Dissonance](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/cognitive-dissonance/): When our actions and beliefs clash, we often change the story rather than the behaviour.
- [Commitment and Consistency Bias](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/commitment-consistency-bias/): Once we have said or done something, we bend later choices to stay consistent with it.
- [Confirmation Bias](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/confirmation-bias/): We look for, notice and remember the evidence that agrees with what we already believe.
- [Denial](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/denial/): When a truth is too painful, we refuse to see it, often until it is too late.
- [First-Conclusion Bias](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/first-conclusion-bias/): The first explanation that fits tends to become the only one we consider.
- [Hindsight Bias](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/hindsight-bias/): Once we know how things turned out, the outcome seems to have been obvious all along.
- [Observer-Expectancy Bias](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/observer-expectancy-bias/): We tend to see what we expect to see, and sometimes cause it without meaning to.
- [Semmelweis Reflex](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/semmelweis-reflex/): We reflexively reject new evidence when accepting it would mean we were wrong.
- [Tendency to Stereotype](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/tendency-to-stereotype/): We judge people by the group they seem to belong to, not by who they are.
- [Birth Lottery](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/birth-lottery/): Where, when and to whom we are born shapes our chances more than almost anything we later do.
- [Dunning-Kruger Effect](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/dunning-kruger-effect/): The less we know about something, the more likely we are to overrate our skill at it.
- [Fixed Mindset vs Growth Mindset](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/fixed-mindset-vs-growth-mindset/): Whether we think ability is fixed or can grow shapes which challenges we take on.
- [Imposter Syndrome](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/imposter-syndrome/): Even very capable people can feel like frauds, sure they will soon be found out.
- [Just World Hypothesis](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/just-world-hypothesis/): We like to believe that people get what they deserve, so we blame the unlucky.
- [Optimism Bias](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/optimism-bias/): We expect things to turn out better, faster and cheaper than they usually do.
- [Self-Serving Bias](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/self-serving-bias/): We take credit for our successes and blame our failures on everything else.
- [Victim Blame](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/victim-blame/): When harm happens, it is tempting to blame the people who suffered it.
- [Deprival-Superreaction Tendency](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/deprival-superreaction-tendency/): Losing something we have, or almost have, provokes a reaction far bigger than gaining it would.
- [Fear](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/fear/): Fear keeps us safe, but when it spreads it can create the very danger it warns of.
- [Freudian Slip](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/freudian-slip/): A slip of the tongue can sometimes reveal what we really think.
- [Influence of Stress](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/influence-of-stress/): A little pressure sharpens judgement; too much breaks it.
- [Loss Aversion](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/loss-aversion/): A loss hurts more than an equal gain pleases, so we pay to avoid losses.
- [Scarcity](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/scarcity/): When something seems scarce, we want it more and think about little else.
- [Self-Preservation](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/self-preservation/): The drive to survive is powerful and often wise, but it narrows what we can see.
- [Disliking and Hating Tendency](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/tendency-to-disliking-hating/): Once we dislike someone or something, we stop judging it fairly.
- [Envy and Jealousy Tendency](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/tendency-to-envy-jealousy/): Seeing what others have can make us want things we never needed.
- [Bandwagon Effect](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/bandwagon-effect/): The more people do something, the more others join in, whatever the evidence.
- [Gateway Drug Theory](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/gateway-drug-theory/): A small, easy first step can make a much bigger next step feel natural.
- [Grass is Greener Mentality](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/grass-is-greener-mentality/): Other options look better from a distance than they turn out to be up close.
- [Relativity](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/relativity/): We judge our situation less by absolute standards than by comparison.

## Fixing problems: Why does this keep going wrong, and how do I fix it for good?

- [Black Box](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/black-box/): When you cannot see how a system reaches its answers, you cannot easily spot its mistakes.
- [First Principles Thinking](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/first-principles-thinking/): Strip a problem back to what you know is true, then build up again from there.
- [Inversion](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/inversion/): To find the way to success, first work out what would guarantee failure, then avoid it.
- [Lateral Thinking](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/lateral-thinking/): When digging harder gets you nowhere, the answer is often to dig somewhere else.
- [Maslow’s Hammer](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/maslow-s-hammer/): If the only tool you know is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a nail.
- [Post Mortem](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/post-mortem/): After something goes wrong, look honestly at how it happened, so it never happens again.
- [Proximate vs Root Cause](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/proximate-vs-root-cause/): The trigger that sets off a problem is rarely the condition that made it possible.
- [Reframe the Problem](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/reframe-the-problem/): Changing the question can turn an impossible problem into a solvable one.
- [The 5 Whys](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/the-5-whys/): The first explanation for a problem is rarely the deepest, so keep asking why.
- [Bottlenecks](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/bottlenecks-constraints/): A system can only move as fast as its narrowest point, so find that point first.
- [Ecosystems](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/ecosystems/): Nothing acts alone: a change in one place travels along links you cannot see.
- [Feedback Loops](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/feedback-loops/): When a system’s results feed back into it, they either steady it or spin it out of control.
- [Homeostasis](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/homeostasis-equilibrium/): Stability is not stillness: healthy systems stay steady by correcting themselves all the time.
- [Hysteresis](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/hysteresis/): Remove the cause of a problem, and its effects may still linger.
- [Le Chatelier’s Principle](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/le-chatelier-s-principle/): Push on a system in balance and it pushes back, settling into a new balance.
- [Broken Windows Theory](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/broken-windows-theory/): Small signs of neglect tell people that nobody cares, and invite bigger trouble.
- [Chain Reaction](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/chain-reaction/): In a tightly linked system, one small trigger can set off everything after it.
- [Containment](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/containment/): When you cannot solve a problem at once, stop it spreading first.
- [Critical Mass](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/critical-mass/): Many efforts only take off once they pass a threshold; below it, they fizzle out.
- [Domino Effect](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/domino-effect/): One small fall can set off a chain that topples far bigger things.
- [Herd Immunity](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/herd-immunity/): Some protections only work when enough of us take part, and then they shield everyone.
- [Quarantine](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/quarantine/): Isolate what might be harmful long enough to learn whether it really is.
- [Tipping Point](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/tipping-point/): Pressure builds quietly for a long time, then change arrives all at once.
- [Blowback](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/blowback/): Actions meant to control others can return, years later, as the very harm they were meant to prevent.
- [Cobra Effect](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/cobra-effect/): A reward for fixing a problem can end up paying people to create more of it.
- [Collateral Damage](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/collateral-damage/): Every action aimed at one target also lands on people who never chose it.
- [Hydra Effect](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/hydra-effect/): Attack a problem without touching its cause, and it can come back in several new forms.
- [Jevons Paradox](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/jevons-paradox/): Making a resource cheaper to use often means we end up using more of it, not less.
- [Law of Unintended Consequences](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/law-of-unintended-consequences/): Actions in complex systems produce results that nobody planned.
- [Spillover Effects](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/spillover-effects/): The effects of a decision travel far beyond the people who made it.
- [Zero Tolerance Policy](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/zero-tolerance-policy/): Rules that allow no exceptions bring clarity, but can punish honest mistakes as harshly as real harm.
- [Cap and Trade](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/cap-and-trade/): Fix the total you can afford, then let people trade to meet it as cheaply as possible.
- [Coase Theorem](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/coase-theorem/): When bargaining is cheap, people can settle a shared harm with a deal.
- [Goodhart’s Law](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/goodhart-s-law/): When a measure becomes a target, people learn to hit the number and miss the point.
- [Government Failure](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/government-failure/): Government action meant to fix a problem can leave things worse than doing nothing.
- [Incentives](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/incentives/): People do what they are rewarded for, not what they are told or asked.
- [Market Failure](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/market-failure/): Free markets go wrong when prices leave out costs that fall on someone else.
- [Perverse Incentives](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/perverse-incentives/): A badly designed reward can pay people to produce the opposite of what you wanted.
- [Regulatory Capture](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/regulatory-capture/): Watchdogs set up to guard the public can end up serving the industry they watch.
- [Shirky Principle](https://mentalmodelsdaily.com/models/shirky-principle/): Institutions tend to preserve the problem to which they are the solution.