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No. 85 · People · Human Nature and Judgement

Anchoring

The first number we hear quietly steers every judgement that follows.

Anchoring is the bias where an initial number or impression becomes a reference point for later decisions. We adjust away from it, but rarely enough, even when the anchor is arbitrary or chosen by someone else.

To use it wisely, do your research before seeing anyone's first offer, set well-justified anchors yourself, and ask what you'd conclude if you'd never seen the opening figure. Always notice who set the starting point.

In the Almanac

“Tucson house prices”, 1987 · “The Economist”, 2000s

Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.

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In the Core Deck

Card C18

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Practise it

Workbook M18

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Anchoring

Questions

What is Anchoring?

Anchoring is the bias where an initial number or impression becomes a reference point for later decisions. We adjust away from it, but rarely enough, even when the anchor is arbitrary or chosen by someone else.

How do you use Anchoring?

To use it wisely, do your research before seeing anyone's first offer, set well-justified anchors yourself, and ask what you'd conclude if you'd never seen the opening figure. Always notice who set the starting point.

When does Anchoring matter?

Anchoring is one of the 60 mental models for people, the situations where you ask: Why do people act as they do, and how do I work with them? Within that, it belongs to “Persuading and influencing”, alongside Backfire Effect, Bait and Switch and Dark Patterns.

What is an example of Anchoring?

Two stories show it at work: Tucson house prices (1987) and The Economist (2000s). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.

Which mental models are related to Anchoring?

Framing, Prospect Theory and Relativity. Anchoring itself comes from human nature and judgement.