Explore the 365
Eight situations, 365 models. Start from what you are facing.
- IDecisionsWhich way should I go?35 models
- IIRiskWhat could go wrong, and what will I do if it does?32 models
- IIIPeopleWhy do people act as they do, and how do I work with them?60 models
- IVWorkHow do I get the right things done?43 models
- VStrategyHow do I win when others want the same thing?56 models
- VIEvidenceIs this really true?68 models
- VIIYour own mindIs my own thinking leading me astray?31 models
- VIIIFixing problemsWhy does this keep going wrong, and how do I fix it for good?40 models
All 365 modelsCognitive biases
A to Z
A
- A/B TestingNo. 1 · Systems
- Activation EnergyNo. 128 · Chemistry
- Ad HominemNo. 271 · Fallacy
- Adverse SelectionNo. 181 · Economics
- AlgorithmsNo. 151 · Systems
- Analysis ParalysisNo. 21 · Human Nature and Judgement
- AnchoringNo. 85 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Anecdotal EvidenceNo. 261 · Human Nature and Judgement
- AntifragilityNo. 60 · Statistics and Probability
- Apostle ModelNo. 182 · Economics
- Appeal to AuthorityNo. 272 · Fallacy
- Appeal to EmotionNo. 273 · Fallacy
- Appeal to IgnoranceNo. 274 · Fallacy
- Appeal to PityNo. 275 · Fallacy
- AppeasementNo. 95 · Military and War
- ArbitrageNo. 212 · Economics
- Arms RaceNo. 218 · Military and War
- Asymmetric WarfareNo. 219 · Military and War
- Availability BiasNo. 46 · Human Nature and Judgement
B
- Back-of-the-Envelope CalculationNo. 2 · Equations
- Backfire EffectNo. 86 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Bait and SwitchNo. 87 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Bandwagon EffectNo. 322 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Bandwagon FallacyNo. 276 · Fallacy
- Barriers to EntryNo. 171 · Economics
- Base Rate FallacyNo. 227 · Fallacy
- Bayes’ TheoremNo. 228 · Statistics and Probability
- Beachhead StrategyNo. 220 · Military and War
- Best Alternative to a Negotiated AgreementNo. 96 · General Thinking
- Bias from IncentivesNo. 284 · Human Nature and Judgement
- BikesheddingNo. 136 · Game Theory
- Birth LotteryNo. 305 · General Thinking
- Black and White FallacyNo. 277 · Fallacy
- Black BoxNo. 326 · Systems
- Black Swan EventNo. 53 · Statistics and Probability
- Blind Spot BiasNo. 295 · Human Nature and Judgement
- BlowbackNo. 349 · Military and War
- Boiling FrogNo. 54 · General Thinking
- Boots on the GroundNo. 152 · Military and War
- BottlenecksNo. 335 · Systems
- Broken Windows TheoryNo. 341 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Burn the BoatsNo. 29 · Military and War
- Butterfly EffectNo. 55 · Physics
- Bystander EffectNo. 122 · Human Nature and Judgement
C
- Call Your BluffNo. 97 · Game Theory
- Cap and TradeNo. 357 · Economics
- Cargo CultNo. 153 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Carrot and StickNo. 115 · Economics
- CatalystsNo. 129 · Chemistry
- Causal FallacyNo. 255 · Fallacy
- Center of GravityNo. 172 · Physics
- Central Limit TheoremNo. 229 · Statistics and Probability
- Chain ReactionNo. 342 · Chemistry
- Chaos TheoryNo. 56 · Physics
- Chilling EffectNo. 123 · Economics
- ChurnNo. 183 · Economics
- Circle of CompetenceNo. 30 · General Thinking
- Circular ArgumentNo. 278 · Fallacy
- Clustering IllusionNo. 256 · Statistics and Probability
- Coase TheoremNo. 358 · Economics
- Cobra EffectNo. 350 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Cognitive DissonanceNo. 296 · Psychology
- Collateral DamageNo. 351 · Military and War
- CommandosNo. 154 · Military and War
- Commitment and Consistency BiasNo. 297 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Comparative AdvantageNo. 163 · Economics
- Compounding EffectNo. 130 · Mathematics
- Conditional ProbabilityNo. 230 · Statistics and Probability
- ConditioningNo. 131 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Confidence IntervalNo. 231 · Statistics and Probability
- Confirmation BiasNo. 298 · Psychology
- Confounding FactorNo. 257 · Statistics and Probability
- Conjunction FallacyNo. 47 · Fallacy
- ContainmentNo. 343 · Military and War
- CooperationNo. 106 · Biology
- Correlation and CausationNo. 258 · Statistics and Probability
- Cost-Benefit AnalysisNo. 3 · Economics
- Counter-InsurgencyNo. 221 · Military and War
- Counterfactual ThinkingNo. 16 · General Thinking
- Creative DestructionNo. 203 · Economics
- Critical MassNo. 344 · Physics
- Crossing the ChasmNo. 192 · Economics
- CrowdsourcingNo. 155 · Systems
- Cultural EvolutionNo. 204 · Sociology
- Customer DevelopmentNo. 184 · Economics
D
- Dark PatternsNo. 88 · Systems
- Data DredgingNo. 262 · Statistics and Probability
- De-RiskingNo. 61 · Economics
- Decision TreeNo. 4 · Systems
- Deliberate PracticeNo. 164 · Human Nature and Judgement
- DenialNo. 299 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Deprival-Superreaction TendencyNo. 313 · Psychology
- DeterrenceNo. 98 · Military and War
- Devil’s Advocate PositionNo. 31 · Sociology
- Directly Responsible IndividualsNo. 156 · Systems
- Discount RateNo. 12 · Economics
- Disliking and Hating TendencyNo. 320 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Disruptive InnovationsNo. 205 · Economics
- DistributionsNo. 232 · Statistics and Probability
- Distributive Justice vs Procedural JusticeNo. 116 · Systems
- Divergent Thinking vs Convergent ThinkingNo. 165 · General Thinking
- Divide and ConquerNo. 157 · Military and War
- Domino EffectNo. 345 · Military and War
- Dopamine LoopNo. 132 · Psychology
- Double-Entry BookkeepingNo. 158 · Economics
- Dunbar’s NumberNo. 124 · Sociology
- Dunning-Kruger EffectNo. 306 · Human Nature and Judgement
E
- Echo ChambersNo. 285 · Sociology
- Economies of ScaleNo. 173 · Economics
- EcosystemsNo. 336 · Biology
- EntropyNo. 159 · Physics
- Envy and Jealousy TendencyNo. 321 · Human Nature and Judgement
- EquivocationNo. 279 · Fallacy
- Error BarsNo. 233 · Statistics and Probability
- Exit StrategyNo. 17 · Economics
- Expected ValueNo. 36 · Statistics and Probability
F
- False Consensus EffectNo. 76 · Psychology
- False DilemmaNo. 22 · Fallacy
- False NegativeNo. 241 · Statistics and Probability
- False PositiveNo. 242 · Statistics and Probability
- FalsificationNo. 243 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Fat-Tailed DistributionsNo. 37 · Statistics and Probability
- FearNo. 314 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Feedback LoopsNo. 337 · Systems
- Filter BubbleNo. 286 · Sociology
- First Mover AdvantageNo. 193 · Economics
- First Principles ThinkingNo. 327 · General Thinking
- First-Conclusion BiasNo. 300 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Fixed Mindset vs Growth MindsetNo. 307 · General Thinking
- Flypaper TheoryNo. 222 · Military and War
- FlywheelNo. 194 · Systems
- Forcing FunctionNo. 133 · Statistics and Probability
- Foxes vs HedgehogsNo. 38 · General Thinking
- Frame of ReferenceNo. 68 · Physics
- FramingNo. 89 · General Thinking
- Free Rider ProblemNo. 107 · Sociology
- Frequentists vs BayesiansNo. 234 · Equations
- Freudian SlipNo. 315 · Psychology
- Fundamental Attribution ErrorNo. 77 · Sociology
G
- Gambler’s FallacyNo. 48 · Economics
- Game TheoryNo. 108 · Statistics and Probability
- Garbage In Garbage OutNo. 287 · Systems
- Gateway Drug TheoryNo. 323 · General Thinking
- Generalist vs SpecialistsNo. 166 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Generals Fighting the Last WarNo. 206 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Golem EffectNo. 117 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Goodhart’s LawNo. 359 · Economics
- Government FailureNo. 360 · Systems
- Grass is Greener MentalityNo. 324 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Grey ThinkingNo. 23 · General Thinking
- GroupthinkNo. 125 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Guerrilla WarfareNo. 223 · Military and War
H
- Halo EffectNo. 78 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Hanlon’s RazorNo. 79 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Hasty GeneralisationNo. 263 · Fallacy
- Heisenberg Uncertainty PrincipleNo. 288 · Physics
- Herd ImmunityNo. 346 · Biology
- Hick’s LawNo. 24 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Hierarchical OrganisationNo. 126 · Systems
- High Context vs Low ContextNo. 69 · Sociology
- Hindsight BiasNo. 301 · Psychology
- Hofstadter’s LawNo. 145 · Human Nature and Judgement
- HomeostasisNo. 338 · Biology
- Horn EffectNo. 80 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Hot-Hand FallacyNo. 49 · Fallacy
- Hydra EffectNo. 352 · General Thinking
- HypothesisNo. 244 · Equations
- HysteresisNo. 339 · Systems
I
- Idea MazeNo. 213 · General Thinking
- Imposter SyndromeNo. 308 · Human Nature and Judgement
- In-Group FavouritismNo. 81 · Sociology
- IncentivesNo. 361 · Systems
- Inductive ReasoningNo. 245 · Psychology
- InertiaNo. 134 · Physics
- InflationNo. 13 · Economics
- Influence of StressNo. 316 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Information OverloadNo. 25 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Institutional KnowledgeNo. 160 · General Thinking
- Introverts vs ExtrovertsNo. 70 · Sociology
- InversionNo. 328 · Mathematics
- IQ vs EQNo. 71 · Sociology
J
- Jevons ParadoxNo. 353 · Economics
- Jobs to be DoneNo. 185 · Economics
- Joy’s LawNo. 214 · General Thinking
- Just World HypothesisNo. 309 · General Thinking
L
- Language InstinctNo. 72 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Lateral ThinkingNo. 329 · General Thinking
- Law of Diminishing Marginal UtilityNo. 5 · Economics
- Law of Diminishing ReturnsNo. 137 · Systems
- Law of Large NumbersNo. 39 · Statistics and Probability
- Law of Unintended ConsequencesNo. 354 · Economics
- Le Chatelier’s PrincipleNo. 340 · Chemistry
- LeverageNo. 138 · Economics
- Liking and Loving TendencyNo. 84 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Lindy EffectNo. 40 · General Thinking
- Local Optimum vs Global OptimumNo. 215 · Mathematics
- Lock-inNo. 186 · Economics
- Long TailNo. 195 · Economics
- Loss AversionNo. 317 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Loss Leader StrategyNo. 187 · Economics
- Loyalists vs MercenariesNo. 188 · Economics
- Luck Surface AreaNo. 216 · General Thinking
M
- Manager’s Schedule vs Maker’s ScheduleNo. 139 · General Thinking
- Managing to the PersonNo. 118 · Economics
- Margin of SafetyNo. 62 · Systems
- Market FailureNo. 362 · Economics
- Maslow’s HammerNo. 330 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Maslow’s Hierarchy of NeedsNo. 73 · General Thinking
- Mean, Median and ModeNo. 235 · Statistics and Probability
- Meta-AnalysisNo. 246 · Statistics and Probability
- Metcalfe’s LawNo. 196 · General Thinking
- Minimum Viable ProductNo. 146 · Economics
- MoatsNo. 174 · Economics
- MomentumNo. 135 · Physics
- Monte Carlo FallacyNo. 50 · Fallacy
- Monte Carlo SimulationNo. 41 · Statistics and Probability
- Moral HazardNo. 63 · Economics
- Most Respectable InterpretationNo. 82 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Mr MarketNo. 51 · Economics
- Murphy’s LawNo. 57 · General Thinking
- Mutually Assured DestructionNo. 99 · Military and War
- Mythical Man-MonthNo. 147 · Economics
N
- Narrative InstinctNo. 289 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Nash EquilibriumNo. 224 · Game Theory
- Natural SelectionNo. 207 · Biology
- Net Present ValueNo. 14 · Economics
- Network EffectsNo. 197 · Sociology
- NichesNo. 175 · Biology
- Non SequiturNo. 280 · Fallacy
- Non-Response BiasNo. 264 · Heuristics and Bias
- Normal DistributionNo. 236 · Statistics and Probability
- Nuclear OptionNo. 32 · Military and War
- NudgingNo. 90 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Null HypothesisNo. 247 · Statistics and Probability
O
- Observer EffectNo. 290 · Sociology
- Observer-Expectancy BiasNo. 302 · Heuristics and Bias
- Occam’s RazorNo. 248 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Only the Paranoid SurviveNo. 208 · Economics
- OODA LoopNo. 18 · General Thinking
- Opportunity CostsNo. 6 · Economics
- Optimism BiasNo. 310 · Economics
- Out-Group BiasNo. 83 · Sociology
- Overgeneralising from Small SamplesNo. 265 · Human Nature and Judgement
P
- P-ValuesNo. 249 · Statistics and Probability
- Paradigm ShiftNo. 209 · General Thinking
- Paradox of ChoiceNo. 26 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Parallel ProcessingNo. 161 · Systems
- Pareto PrincipleNo. 140 · Economics
- PeakNo. 58 · Physics
- Peak-end RuleNo. 74 · Heuristics and Bias
- Perfect is the Enemy of GoodNo. 148 · General Thinking
- PersonasNo. 189 · Sociology
- Perverse IncentivesNo. 363 · Systems
- Peter PrincipleNo. 119 · General Thinking
- Pirate CodeNo. 109 · Sociology
- PivotNo. 190 · Economics
- Placebo EffectNo. 250 · Human Nature and Judgement
- PolarityNo. 100 · Chemistry
- Post MortemNo. 331 · Biology
- Potemkin VillageNo. 291 · Economics
- Potential EnergyNo. 167 · Physics
- Power LawNo. 198 · Statistics and Probability
- Power VacuumNo. 127 · Military and War
- Prediction MarketNo. 42 · Economics
- Premature OptimisationNo. 149 · Systems
- Preserving OptionalityNo. 64 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Principal-Agent ProblemNo. 120 · Systems
- Prisoner’s DilemmaNo. 110 · Game Theory
- Pro-Con ListNo. 7 · Systems
- Probabilistic ThinkingNo. 43 · General Thinking
- Probability DistributionNo. 237 · Statistics and Probability
- Product/Market FitNo. 191 · Economics
- Prospect TheoryNo. 52 · Economics
- Proximate vs Root CauseNo. 332 · Equations
- ProxyNo. 292 · Systems
- Publication BiasNo. 266 · Heuristics and Bias
- Punching Above Your WeightNo. 176 · Sociology
- Pygmalion EffectNo. 121 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Pyrrhic VictoryNo. 33 · Military and War
Q
- QuarantineNo. 347 · Military and War
R
- Randomised Controlled ExperimentsNo. 251 · Statistics and Probability
- RandomnessNo. 44 · Statistics and Probability
- ReciprocityNo. 91 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Red Herring FallacyNo. 281 · Fallacy
- Red Queen EffectNo. 210 · Biology
- RedlineNo. 101 · Military and War
- Reframe the ProblemNo. 333 · General Thinking
- Regression FallacyNo. 259 · General Thinking
- Regression to the MeanNo. 238 · Statistics and Probability
- Regulatory CaptureNo. 364 · Economics
- RelativityNo. 325 · Physics
- ReplicationNo. 162 · Biology
- Replication CrisisNo. 267 · Psychology
- ResilienceNo. 65 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Resonant FrequencyNo. 168 · Physics
- Response BiasNo. 268 · Heuristics and Bias
S
- S-CurvesNo. 199 · Mathematics
- SatisficingNo. 27 · Psychology
- Sayre’s LawNo. 102 · Human Nature and Judgement
- ScarcityNo. 318 · Economics
- Scenario AnalysisNo. 66 · General Thinking
- Scientific MethodNo. 252 · Equations
- Second-Order ThinkingNo. 19 · General Thinking
- SecretsNo. 177 · Sociology
- Seizing the MiddleNo. 178 · Economics
- Selection BiasNo. 269 · Heuristics and Bias
- Self-PreservationNo. 319 · Biology
- Self-Serving BiasNo. 311 · Heuristics and Bias
- Semmelweis ReflexNo. 303 · General Thinking
- Sensitivity AnalysisNo. 8 · Mathematics
- Shirky PrincipleNo. 365 · Economics
- Simultaneous InventionNo. 217 · General Thinking
- Slippery SlopeNo. 282 · Fallacy
- Social Norms vs Market NormsNo. 111 · Sociology
- Social ProofNo. 92 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Spacing EffectNo. 169 · General Thinking
- SpecialisationNo. 170 · Economics
- Spillover EffectsNo. 355 · Economics
- Standard DeviationNo. 239 · Statistics and Probability
- Statistical SignificanceNo. 253 · Statistics and Probability
- Stop the BleedingNo. 67 · Military and War
- Strategy vs TacticsNo. 225 · General Thinking
- Strawman FallacyNo. 103 · Fallacy
- Streisand EffectNo. 93 · Sociology
- Sunk Cost FallacyNo. 34 · Fallacy
- Super ForecastersNo. 45 · Statistics and Probability
- Supply and DemandNo. 200 · Economics
- Survival of the FittestNo. 211 · Biology
- Survivorship BiasNo. 270 · Heuristics and Bias
- Sustainable Competitive AdvantageNo. 179 · Economics
- Switching CostsNo. 15 · Economics
- Systematic ReviewNo. 254 · Systems
T
- Technology Adoption LifecycleNo. 201 · Systems
- Tendency to StereotypeNo. 304 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Tendency to Want to Do SomethingNo. 28 · Human Nature and Judgement
- Texas Sharpshooter FallacyNo. 260 · Fallacy
- The 5 WhysNo. 334 · General Thinking
- The Map is not the TerritoryNo. 293 · General Thinking
- Theory of MindNo. 75 · Psychology
- Thought ExperimentNo. 20 · General Thinking
- Tipping PointNo. 348 · Economics
- Tit for TatNo. 112 · Game Theory
- Top of Your MindNo. 141 · General Thinking
- TrademarksNo. 180 · Economics
- Tragedy of the CommonsNo. 113 · Economics
- Trojan HorseNo. 104 · Military and War
- TrustNo. 114 · Sociology
- Tu QuoqueNo. 283 · Fallacy
- Two-Front WarNo. 142 · Military and War
- Tyranny of Small DecisionsNo. 143 · Economics
U
- Unforced ErrorNo. 150 · Military and War
- Unknown UnknownsNo. 59 · General Thinking
- UtilitarianismNo. 9 · General Thinking
- Utility ValuesNo. 10 · Economics
V
- VarianceNo. 240 · Statistics and Probability
- Veil of IgnoranceNo. 11 · Systems
- VelocityNo. 144 · Physics
- Victim BlameNo. 312 · Sociology
W
- War of AttritionNo. 226 · Military and War
- Winner Takes Most MarketsNo. 202 · Economics
- Winner’s CurseNo. 35 · Economics
- Winning Hearts and MindsNo. 94 · Military and War
Z
- Zero Tolerance PolicyNo. 356 · Military and War
- Zero-Sum vs Win-WinNo. 105 · Military and War
- Zombie IdeasNo. 294 · Sociology