No. 284 · Evidence · Human Nature and Judgement
Bias from Incentives
When pay or status depends on a conclusion, people tend to reach it, sincerely.
In the Almanac
“Sugar money at Harvard”, 1967–2016 · “Moody’s”, 2000–2017
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
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Questions
What is Bias from Incentives?
Bias from incentives describes how pay, status or funding can bend judgement, usually below conscious awareness. People rarely feel corrupted; they simply find the conclusion that rewards them more convincing.
How do you avoid Bias from Incentives?
When you take advice or read research, ask who benefits if you believe it. Seek independent second opinions, check who funded a study, and admit your own stake before judging a project or choice you championed.
When does Bias from Incentives matter?
Bias from Incentives is one of the 68 mental models for evidence, the situations where you ask: Is this really true? Within that, it belongs to “Where information comes from”, alongside Echo Chambers, Filter Bubble and Garbage In Garbage Out.
What is an example of Bias from Incentives?
Two stories show it at work: Sugar money at Harvard (1967–2016) and Moody’s (2000–2017). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to Bias from Incentives?
Incentives, Principal-Agent Problem and Regulatory Capture. Bias from Incentives itself comes from human nature and judgement.