Causal Fallacy

Questions

What is Causal Fallacy?

The causal fallacy mistakes correlation or sequence for causation. Two events can appear together by chance, because a hidden third factor drives both, or because cause runs the other way. Crediting the wrong cause leads us to repeat what doesn't work.

How do you avoid Causal Fallacy?

When someone claims X causes Y, ask three questions: what else could explain it, which way does the cause run, and is there a fair comparison group?

When does Causal Fallacy matter?

Causal Fallacy is one of the 68 mental models for evidence, the situations where you ask: Is this really true? Within that, it belongs to “Cause or coincidence?”, alongside Clustering Illusion, Confounding Factor and Correlation and Causation.

What is an example of Causal Fallacy?

Two stories show it at work: Bleeding Washington (1799) and Lumosity (2016). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.

Which mental models are related to Causal Fallacy?

Confounding Factor, Correlation and Causation and Post Mortem. Causal Fallacy itself comes from fallacy.