No. 23 · Decisions · General Thinking
Grey Thinking
Most important questions have no clean right side, and the best answers often sit between the extremes.
In the Almanac
“Truth and Reconciliation”, 1996–1998 · “BlackRock”, 2023
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
Get the AlmanacQuestions
What is Grey Thinking?
Grey Thinking means accepting that most important issues involve trade-offs and uncertainty rather than a clear right and wrong side. It looks for solutions in the middle ground that binary debates ignore.
How do you use Grey Thinking?
To practise it, state the strongest version of the other view before your own, swap yes-or-no questions for how-much questions, and think in probabilities rather than certainties. Some issues are black and white, but most are not.
When does Grey Thinking matter?
Grey Thinking is one of the 35 mental models for decisions, the situations where you ask: Which way should I go? Within that, it belongs to “When choosing gets hard”, alongside Analysis Paralysis, False Dilemma and Hick’s Law.
What is an example of Grey Thinking?
Two stories show it at work: Truth and Reconciliation (1996–1998) and BlackRock (2023). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to Grey Thinking?
False Dilemma, Probabilistic Thinking and Foxes vs Hedgehogs. Grey Thinking itself comes from general thinking.