No. 125 · People · Human Nature and Judgement
Groupthink
A group that values harmony over honesty can talk itself into disaster.
In the Almanac
“The Bay of Pigs”, 1961 · “Carillion”, 2018
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
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Questions
What is Groupthink?
Group Think happens when a close-knit group values agreement over critical thinking. Members keep doubts to themselves, silence is mistaken for consensus, and confident teams talk themselves into serious mistakes.
How do you use Groupthink?
To prevent it, collect opinions privately before discussion, assign someone to argue the other side, and invite outside voices. Make disagreement a normal part of the process rather than an act of disloyalty.
When does Groupthink matter?
Groupthink is one of the 60 mental models for people, the situations where you ask: Why do people act as they do, and how do I work with them? Within that, it belongs to “How groups behave”, alongside Bystander Effect, Chilling Effect and Dunbar’s Number.
What is an example of Groupthink?
Two stories show it at work: The Bay of Pigs (1961) and Carillion (2018). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to Groupthink?
Devil’s Advocate Position, Bandwagon Effect and Echo Chambers. Groupthink itself comes from human nature and judgement.