No. 79 · People · Human Nature and Judgement
Hanlon’s Razor
Never put down to malice what can be explained by mistake, muddle or accident.
In the Almanac
“Petrov’s false alarm”, 1983 · “Knight Capital”, 2012
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
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Questions
What is Hanlon’s Razor?
Hanlon's Razor tells us to assume mistakes before malice. When something goes wrong, the cause is usually an error, a misunderstanding or a broken process, not a deliberate plot, and assuming bad intent leads to anger and the wrong fixes.
How do you use Hanlon’s Razor?
To use it, ask neutral questions before accusing, look for system failures first, and stay calm with colleagues, companies and loved ones. But watch for repeated patterns that do suggest intent.
When does Hanlon’s Razor matter?
Hanlon’s Razor is one of the 60 mental models for people, the situations where you ask: Why do people act as they do, and how do I work with them? Within that, it belongs to “How we judge others”, alongside False Consensus Effect, Fundamental Attribution Error and Halo Effect.
What is an example of Hanlon’s Razor?
Two stories show it at work: Petrov’s false alarm (1983) and Knight Capital (2012). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to Hanlon’s Razor?
Fundamental Attribution Error, Most Respectable Interpretation and Occam’s Razor. Hanlon’s Razor itself comes from human nature and judgement.