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No. 353 · Fixing problems · Economics

Jevons Paradox

Making a resource cheaper to use often means we end up using more of it, not less.

Jevons Paradox describes how efficiency gains can raise total use of a resource. When steam engines became more efficient, coal became cheaper to use for more purposes, and Britain's coal consumption rose sharply. Cheaper, more efficient AI shows the same pattern today.

When something becomes more efficient, expect usage to grow and plan for it. Pair efficiency with limits, such as an efficient shower head plus a timer, or a faster workflow plus clear boundaries on time. If the goal is to save, set explicit budgets so efficiency gains turn into actual savings.

In the Almanac

“The Coal Question”, 1865 · “DeepSeek”, 2025

Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.

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Jevons Paradox

Questions

What is Jevons Paradox?

Jevons Paradox describes how efficiency gains can raise total use of a resource. When steam engines became more efficient, coal became cheaper to use for more purposes, and Britain's coal consumption rose sharply. Cheaper, more efficient AI shows the same pattern today.

How do you use Jevons Paradox?

When something becomes more efficient, expect usage to grow and plan for it. Pair efficiency with limits, such as an efficient shower head plus a timer, or a faster workflow plus clear boundaries on time. If the goal is to save, set explicit budgets so efficiency gains turn into actual savings.

When does Jevons Paradox matter?

Jevons Paradox is one of the 40 mental models for fixing problems, the situations where you ask: Why does this keep going wrong, and how do I fix it for good? Within that, it belongs to “When fixes backfire”, alongside Blowback, Cobra Effect and Collateral Damage.

What is an example of Jevons Paradox?

Two stories show it at work: The Coal Question (1865) and DeepSeek (2025). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.

Which mental models are related to Jevons Paradox?

Supply and Demand, Tragedy of the Commons and Law of Diminishing Marginal Utility. Jevons Paradox itself comes from economics.