No. 19 · Decisions · General Thinking
Second-Order Thinking
Every action has consequences, and those consequences have consequences of their own.
In the Almanac
“Cane toads in Queensland”, 1935 · “Unity”, 2023
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
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Questions
What is Second-Order Thinking?
Second/Third Order Thinking means asking what happens next, and then after that. First-order effects are the obvious results we intend. Second- and third-order effects are the reactions, and the reactions to the reactions, which often decide whether a choice succeeds or backfires.
How do you use Second-Order Thinking?
Before a big decision, trace at least two steps ahead. Ask how people, systems and habits will respond, and whether today's fix creates tomorrow's problem. Use it most where choices affect others, but don't let it paralyse small decisions.
When does Second-Order Thinking matter?
Second-Order Thinking is one of the 35 mental models for decisions, the situations where you ask: Which way should I go? Within that, it belongs to “Thinking ahead”, alongside Counterfactual Thinking, Exit Strategy and OODA Loop.
What is an example of Second-Order Thinking?
Two stories show it at work: Cane toads in Queensland (1935) and Unity (2023). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to Second-Order Thinking?
Law of Unintended Consequences, Cobra Effect and Inversion. Second-Order Thinking itself comes from general thinking.