VII · 31 models
Your own mind
Is my own thinking leading me astray?
How your own judgement can be quietly pulled off course.
Seeing what you want to see
How the mind protects what it already believes.
Blind Spot Bias
We see bias clearly in other people and hardly at all in ourselves.
Cognitive Dissonance
When our actions and beliefs clash, we often change the story rather than the behaviour.
Commitment and Consistency Bias
Once we have said or done something, we bend later choices to stay consistent with it.
Confirmation Bias
We look for, notice and remember the evidence that agrees with what we already believe.
Denial
When a truth is too painful, we refuse to see it, often until it is too late.
First-Conclusion Bias
The first explanation that fits tends to become the only one we consider.
Hindsight Bias
Once we know how things turned out, the outcome seems to have been obvious all along.
Observer-Expectancy Bias
We tend to see what we expect to see, and sometimes cause it without meaning to.
Semmelweis Reflex
We reflexively reject new evidence when accepting it would mean we were wrong.
Tendency to Stereotype
We judge people by the group they seem to belong to, not by who they are.
Judging yourself, and your luck
Confidence, doubt, and how we explain success, failure and fortune.
Birth Lottery
Where, when and to whom we are born shapes our chances more than almost anything we later do.
Dunning-Kruger Effect
The less we know about something, the more likely we are to overrate our skill at it.
Fixed Mindset vs Growth Mindset
Whether we think ability is fixed or can grow shapes which challenges we take on.
Imposter Syndrome
Even very capable people can feel like frauds, sure they will soon be found out.
Just World Hypothesis
We like to believe that people get what they deserve, so we blame the unlucky.
Optimism Bias
We expect things to turn out better, faster and cheaper than they usually do.
Self-Serving Bias
We take credit for our successes and blame our failures on everything else.
Victim Blame
When harm happens, it is tempting to blame the people who suffered it.
Feelings that steer you
Fear, loss, stress and envy, and what they do to judgement.
Deprival-Superreaction Tendency
Losing something we have, or almost have, provokes a reaction far bigger than gaining it would.
Fear
Fear keeps us safe, but when it spreads it can create the very danger it warns of.
Freudian Slip
A slip of the tongue can sometimes reveal what we really think.
Influence of Stress
A little pressure sharpens judgement; too much breaks it.
Loss Aversion
A loss hurts more than an equal gain pleases, so we pay to avoid losses.
Scarcity
When something seems scarce, we want it more and think about little else.
Self-Preservation
The drive to survive is powerful and often wise, but it narrows what we can see.
Disliking and Hating Tendency
Once we dislike someone or something, we stop judging it fairly.
Envy and Jealousy Tendency
Seeing what others have can make us want things we never needed.
Comparing, following and drifting
Measuring yourself against others, following the crowd, and small steps that take you further than you meant.
Bandwagon Effect
The more people do something, the more others join in, whatever the evidence.
Gateway Drug Theory
A small, easy first step can make a much bigger next step feel natural.
Grass is Greener Mentality
Other options look better from a distance than they turn out to be up close.
Relativity
We judge our situation less by absolute standards than by comparison.