No. 298 · Your own mind · Psychology
Confirmation Bias
We look for, notice and remember the evidence that agrees with what we already believe.
In the Almanac
“Kepler’s ellipses”, 1609–1627 · “Stitch Fix”, 2011
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
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Questions
What is Confirmation Bias?
Confirmation bias is our tendency to seek, interpret, and recall information that supports what we already believe, while discounting what challenges it. Because it works mostly below awareness, it can distort judgments everywhere from science to hiring to everyday arguments.
How do you avoid Confirmation Bias?
Deliberately look for credible sources that disagree with you, and treat constant agreement as a warning sign. Run a pre-mortem before big decisions by imagining you were wrong and asking why. Seek out people who think differently and genuinely listen, since they can see what you miss.
When does Confirmation Bias matter?
Confirmation Bias is one of the 31 mental models for your own mind, the situations where you ask: Is my own thinking leading me astray? Within that, it belongs to “Seeing what you want to see”, alongside Blind Spot Bias, Cognitive Dissonance and Commitment and Consistency Bias.
What is an example of Confirmation Bias?
Two stories show it at work: Kepler’s ellipses (1609–1627) and Stitch Fix (2011). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to Confirmation Bias?
Falsification, Filter Bubble and Devil’s Advocate Position. Confirmation Bias itself comes from psychology.