No. 261 · Evidence · Human Nature and Judgement
Anecdotal Evidence
A vivid story shows that something happened once, never how often it works.
In the Almanac
“Laetrile on trial”, 1970s–1982 · “Airborne”, 2008
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
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Questions
What is Anecdotal Evidence?
Anecdotal evidence is proof drawn from individual stories and testimonials. Stories are vivid and persuasive, but they can't tell us how many people a remedy or tip failed, or what would have happened anyway.
How do you use Anecdotal Evidence?
When a story pushes you toward a decision, ask about everyone who isn't in it, and look for controlled studies or real data. Use stories to raise good questions, then let the evidence answer them.
When does Anecdotal Evidence matter?
Anecdotal Evidence is one of the 68 mental models for evidence, the situations where you ask: Is this really true? Within that, it belongs to “When research goes wrong”, alongside Data Dredging, Hasty Generalisation and Non-Response Bias.
What is an example of Anecdotal Evidence?
Two stories show it at work: Laetrile on trial (1970s–1982) and Airborne (2008). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to Anecdotal Evidence?
Tit for Tat, Randomised Controlled Experiments and Social Proof. Anecdotal Evidence itself comes from human nature and judgement.