No. 260 · Evidence · Fallacy
Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy
Draw the target after the shots and every shooter looks like a marksman.
In the Almanac
“The Bible Code”, 1997 · “Good to Great”, 2001
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
Get the AlmanacListen · Watch
Questions
What is Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy?
The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy is painting the target after firing the shots: picking out clusters in data and ignoring everything else. The Bible Code found predictions in the Torah, but critics found similar ones in Moby-Dick.
How do you avoid Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy?
Decide what you are testing before you look at the results. Ask what data was left out, and treat patterns found in hindsight as ideas to test, not conclusions already proven.
When does Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy matter?
Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy is one of the 68 mental models for evidence, the situations where you ask: Is this really true? Within that, it belongs to “Cause or coincidence?”, alongside Causal Fallacy, Clustering Illusion and Confounding Factor.
What is an example of Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy?
Two stories show it at work: The Bible Code (1997) and Good to Great (2001). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy?
Clustering Illusion, Data Dredging and Survivorship Bias. Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy itself comes from fallacy.