No. 54 · Risk · General Thinking
Boiling Frog
The most dangerous changes are often the slowest ones.
In the Almanac
“The Aral Sea”, 1960–2000s · “General Electric”, 2018
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
Get the AlmanacQuestions
What is Boiling Frog?
The Boiling Frog describes how gradual change slips past our alarms. Each small step feels normal compared to yesterday, so people and organisations stay put while conditions get steadily worse.
How do you use Boiling Frog?
To use it, compare today against a fixed reference point, like last year, not last week. Set tripwires in advance that trigger action when crossed, and review your health, money and relationships regularly.
When does Boiling Frog matter?
Boiling Frog is one of the 32 mental models for risk, the situations where you ask: What could go wrong, and what will I do if it does? Within that, it belongs to “The unexpected”, alongside Black Swan Event, Butterfly Effect and Chaos Theory.
What is an example of Boiling Frog?
Two stories show it at work: The Aral Sea (1960–2000s) and General Electric (2018). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to Boiling Frog?
Inertia, Denial and Hysteresis. Boiling Frog itself comes from general thinking.