No. 98 · People · Military and War
Deterrence
A threat that others believe you will carry out can stop a fight before it starts.
In the Almanac
“Shooting an admiral”, 1756–1757 · “American Airlines”, 1995–2001
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
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Questions
What is Deterrence?
Deterrence works when others believe you can and will respond. Britain executed Admiral Byng in 1757 partly as a warning to other officers, and when American Airlines matched rivals’ Dallas fares, they left; courts cleared it.
How do you use Deterrence?
Use it by making your boundaries credible: enforce them the first time, add visible protections at home and online, and keep consequences proportionate so you'll actually follow through. Threats you never carry out teach people to ignore you.
When does Deterrence matter?
Deterrence is one of the 60 mental models for people, the situations where you ask: Why do people act as they do, and how do I work with them? Within that, it belongs to “Negotiating and conflict”, alongside Appeasement, Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement and Call Your Bluff.
What is an example of Deterrence?
Two stories show it at work: Shooting an admiral (1756–1757) and American Airlines (1995–2001). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to Deterrence?
Redline, Barriers to Entry and Zero Tolerance Policy. Deterrence itself comes from military and war.