No. 99 · People · Military and War
Mutually Assured Destruction
When both sides can destroy each other, neither dares to strike first.
In the Almanac
“India and Pakistan at the brink”, 2001–2019 · “Apple and Samsung”, 2011–2018
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
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Questions
What is Mutually Assured Destruction?
Mutually Assured Destruction is a strategic standoff in which both sides could annihilate each other, so neither strikes first. It kept the Cold War from turning nuclear and has helped restrain India and Pakistan during crises. The same logic appears in business, where rivals like Apple and Samsung depend on each other.
How do you use Mutually Assured Destruction?
Recognise when you and another party could seriously harm each other, in a partnership, contract, or negotiation. Shared vulnerability is a reason to seek cooperative solutions and keep competition within bounds, rather than taking actions that would damage you both.
When does Mutually Assured Destruction matter?
Mutually Assured Destruction is one of the 60 mental models for people, the situations where you ask: Why do people act as they do, and how do I work with them? Within that, it belongs to “Negotiating and conflict”, alongside Appeasement, Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement and Call Your Bluff.
What is an example of Mutually Assured Destruction?
Two stories show it at work: India and Pakistan at the brink (2001–2019) and Apple and Samsung (2011–2018). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to Mutually Assured Destruction?
Deterrence, Nash Equilibrium and Arms Race. Mutually Assured Destruction itself comes from military and war.