No. 222 · Strategy · Military and War
Flypaper Theory
Draw a threat to a place of your choosing, and it stays away from what matters most.
In the Almanac
“Dien Bien Phu”, 1953–1954 · “Thinkst Canary”, 2015
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
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Questions
What is Flypaper Theory?
The Flypaper Theory says a force or resource placed in one spot can attract opponents, engaging them there and away from more valuable targets. It works only if the lure is sticky and you are strong at that spot.
How do you use Flypaper Theory?
Use it to channel distractions into a set time, contain risk with a separate low-limit card, and catch problems early. But before setting a trap, ask whether you can hold that ground if they arrive in full force.
When does Flypaper Theory matter?
Flypaper Theory is one of the 56 mental models for strategy, the situations where you ask: How do I win when others want the same thing? Within that, it belongs to “Competing with rivals”, alongside Arms Race, Asymmetric Warfare and Beachhead Strategy.
What is an example of Flypaper Theory?
Two stories show it at work: Dien Bien Phu (1953–1954) and Thinkst Canary (2015). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to Flypaper Theory?
Trojan Horse, Loss Leader Strategy and Containment. Flypaper Theory itself comes from military and war.