No. 206 · Strategy · Human Nature and Judgement
Generals Fighting the Last War
The lessons of the last battle can leave you perfectly prepared for a fight that never comes.
In the Almanac
“The Maginot Line”, 1929–1940 · “Motorola”, 2004–2011
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
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Questions
What is Generals Fighting the Last War?
Generals Fighting the Last War describes how past success or pain locks us into old strategies. We prepare for the challenge we already faced, even as the world shifts, and end up ready for a fight that never comes.
How do you use Generals Fighting the Last War?
To avoid it, regularly ask whether the conditions behind your favourite playbook still hold. Prepare for several possible futures, seek fresh perspectives, and treat history as a guide rather than a script.
When does Generals Fighting the Last War matter?
Generals Fighting the Last War is one of the 56 mental models for strategy, the situations where you ask: How do I win when others want the same thing? Within that, it belongs to “Staying ahead of change”, alongside Creative Destruction, Cultural Evolution and Disruptive Innovations.
What is an example of Generals Fighting the Last War?
Two stories show it at work: The Maginot Line (1929–1940) and Motorola (2004–2011). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to Generals Fighting the Last War?
Only the Paranoid Survive, Maslow’s Hammer and Commitment and Consistency Bias. Generals Fighting the Last War itself comes from human nature and judgement.