No. 244 · Evidence · Equations
Hypothesis
A good guess is one that reality can prove wrong.
In the Almanac
“Eddington’s eclipse”, 1919 · “Capital One”, 1994
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
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What is Hypothesis?
A hypothesis is a proposed explanation that makes a prediction reality can confirm or refute. It sits between a hunch and a fact, and its power comes from being falsifiable.
How do you use Hypothesis?
To use it, turn opinions into tests. State what you expect, decide in advance what result would change your mind, and try it on a small scale first, whether that's a sleep habit, a work process, or a business offer.
When does Hypothesis matter?
Hypothesis is one of the 68 mental models for evidence, the situations where you ask: Is this really true? Within that, it belongs to “Testing a claim”, alongside False Negative, False Positive and Falsification.
What is an example of Hypothesis?
Two stories show it at work: Eddington’s eclipse (1919) and Capital One (1994). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to Hypothesis?
Falsification, A/B Testing and First Principles Thinking. Hypothesis itself comes from equations.