No. 243 · Evidence · Human Nature and Judgement
Falsification
Trying to prove yourself wrong is the surest route to finding out what is right.
In the Almanac
“The missing ether”, 1887 · “Harrah’s”, 1998–2010s
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
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Questions
What is Falsification?
Falsification means looking for the evidence that could show you're wrong. Michelson and Morley's failed hunt for the ether helped overturn a whole theory, and Harrah's casino tested its offers against control groups.
How do you use Falsification?
Use it by deciding in advance what result would prove your plan wrong, running small fair tests on your habits, and seeking the strongest case against your own story. Trust ideas more once they survive a real attempt to break them.
When does Falsification matter?
Falsification is one of the 68 mental models for evidence, the situations where you ask: Is this really true? Within that, it belongs to “Testing a claim”, alongside False Negative, False Positive and Hypothesis.
What is an example of Falsification?
Two stories show it at work: The missing ether (1887) and Harrah’s (1998–2010s). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to Falsification?
Confirmation Bias, Hypothesis and Devil’s Advocate Position. Falsification itself comes from human nature and judgement.