No. 199 · Strategy · Mathematics
S-Curves
New ideas spread slowly, then suddenly, then slowly again as the market fills.
In the Almanac
“Television reaches the living room”, 1948–1960 · “BYD”, 2022–2023
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
Get the AlmanacQuestions
What is S-Curves?
S-Curves describe how new technologies and ideas spread. Adoption starts slowly with a few early users, accelerates rapidly as the idea proves itself, then levels off as most people already have it. American television went from under one percent of homes in 1948 to nearly ninety percent by 1960.
How do you use S-Curves?
To use it, notice where your skills and investments sit on the curve. Learn the next thing before your current skills plateau, and don't quit during the slow start of learning something new.
When does S-Curves matter?
S-Curves is one of the 56 mental models for strategy, the situations where you ask: How do I win when others want the same thing? Within that, it belongs to “How markets grow and tip”, alongside Crossing the Chasm, First Mover Advantage and Flywheel.
What is an example of S-Curves?
Two stories show it at work: Television reaches the living room (1948–1960) and BYD (2022–2023). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to S-Curves?
Technology Adoption Lifecycle, Tipping Point and Law of Diminishing Returns. S-Curves itself comes from mathematics.