No. 60 · Risk · Statistics and Probability
Antifragility
Some things break under stress, some resist it, and some grow stronger from it.
In the Almanac
“The Great Fire of London”, 1666 · “Universa Investments”, 2020
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
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Questions
What is Antifragility?
Fragile things break under stress, robust things resist it, and antifragile things improve because of it. The idea helps us design careers, finances and organisations that survive surprises and sometimes profit from them.
How do you use Antifragility?
To use it, keep most of your life safe, take small risks with big upside, build adaptable skills, and welcome small doses of stress with time to recover.
When does Antifragility matter?
Antifragility is one of the 32 mental models for risk, the situations where you ask: What could go wrong, and what will I do if it does? Within that, it belongs to “Protecting yourself”, alongside De-Risking, Margin of Safety and Moral Hazard.
What is an example of Antifragility?
Two stories show it at work: The Great Fire of London (1666) and Universa Investments (2020). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to Antifragility?
Resilience, Fat-Tailed Distributions and Deliberate Practice. Antifragility itself comes from statistics and probability.