No. 59 · Risk · General Thinking
Unknown Unknowns
The biggest risks are often the ones missing from your list.
In the Almanac
“Rumsfeld’s briefing”, 2002 · “Ever Given”, 2021
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
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Questions
What is Unknown Unknowns?
Unknown Unknowns are the factors we are not even aware we are missing. Unlike known unknowns, the open questions we can name, they sit completely outside our list of risks, so no forecast includes them.
How do you use Unknown Unknowns?
You can't predict them, but you can prepare. Build buffers like emergency savings and spare time in schedules. Ask outsiders to find blind spots in your plans. Strengthen general resilience in your health and work, so whatever surprise arrives, you can absorb it and recover.
When does Unknown Unknowns matter?
Unknown Unknowns is one of the 32 mental models for risk, the situations where you ask: What could go wrong, and what will I do if it does? Within that, it belongs to “The unexpected”, alongside Black Swan Event, Boiling Frog and Butterfly Effect.
What is an example of Unknown Unknowns?
Two stories show it at work: Rumsfeld’s briefing (2002) and Ever Given (2021). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to Unknown Unknowns?
Black Swan Event, Dunning-Kruger Effect and Circle of Competence. Unknown Unknowns itself comes from general thinking.