No. 46 · Risk · Human Nature and Judgement
Availability Bias
What comes to mind easily feels likely, whether or not it is.
In the Almanac
“Love Canal”, 1978 · “California earthquake cover”, 1994–1996
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
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Questions
What is Availability Bias?
Availability bias makes recent, vivid or emotional events feel more common than they are, while quieter risks fade from view. It shapes what we fear, insure against and pay attention to.
How do you avoid Availability Bias?
Counter it by checking frightening headlines against real rates, setting up insurance and savings based on actual risk rather than recent news, and reviewing the full record before judging people or projects by their latest moment.
When does Availability Bias matter?
Availability Bias is one of the 32 mental models for risk, the situations where you ask: What could go wrong, and what will I do if it does? Within that, it belongs to “Misreading chance”, alongside Conjunction Fallacy, Gambler’s Fallacy and Hot-Hand Fallacy.
What is an example of Availability Bias?
Two stories show it at work: Love Canal (1978) and California earthquake cover (1994–1996). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to Availability Bias?
Base Rate Fallacy, Fear and Echo Chambers. Availability Bias itself comes from human nature and judgement.