No. 45 · Risk · Statistics and Probability
Super Forecasters
Good prediction comes less from genius than from habits anyone can learn.
In the Almanac
“Tetlock’s scorecard”, 1984–2005 · “Metaculus”, 2015
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
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Questions
What is Super Forecasters?
Super Forecasters consistently beat the crowd at predicting events. Philip Tetlock collected tens of thousands of expert forecasts and found most barely beat chance, but open-minded foxes did better than one-idea hedgehogs. Metaculus now scores forecasters and weights the best.
How do you use Super Forecasters?
To forecast better, put numbers on your predictions, write them down and check them, update gradually with new evidence, and consider several explanations. Even the best are often wrong, but keeping score makes you less wrong over time.
When does Super Forecasters matter?
Super Forecasters is one of the 32 mental models for risk, the situations where you ask: What could go wrong, and what will I do if it does? Within that, it belongs to “Thinking in odds”, alongside Expected Value, Fat-Tailed Distributions and Foxes vs Hedgehogs.
What is an example of Super Forecasters?
Two stories show it at work: Tetlock’s scorecard (1984–2005) and Metaculus (2015). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to Super Forecasters?
Foxes vs Hedgehogs, Bayes’ Theorem and Dunning-Kruger Effect. Super Forecasters itself comes from statistics and probability.