No. 40 · Risk · General Thinking
Lindy Effect
For things that do not wear out, every year survived predicts more years to come.
In the Almanac
“Lindy’s Law”, 1964 · “Kongō Gumi”, 578–2006
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
Get the AlmanacQuestions
What is Lindy Effect?
The Lindy Effect says that for books, ideas, technologies and institutions, past survival predicts future survival. A book read for a century will likely outlast this year's bestseller, because every year it lasts is evidence of hidden strength.
How do you use Lindy Effect?
Use it to choose what to learn, which habits to adopt and which tools to rely on. Give proven classics more weight than fads. Just remember it applies to non-perishable things, not people or machines, and it is a rule of thumb, not a guarantee.
When does Lindy Effect matter?
Lindy Effect is one of the 32 mental models for risk, the situations where you ask: What could go wrong, and what will I do if it does? Within that, it belongs to “Thinking in odds”, alongside Expected Value, Fat-Tailed Distributions and Foxes vs Hedgehogs.
What is an example of Lindy Effect?
Two stories show it at work: Lindy’s Law (1964) and Kongō Gumi (578–2006). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to Lindy Effect?
Survivorship Bias, Sustainable Competitive Advantage and Antifragility. Lindy Effect itself comes from general thinking.