No. 57 · Risk · General Thinking
Murphy’s Law
If something can go wrong, given enough time and people, it eventually will.
In the Almanac
“Captain Murphy’s sensors”, 1949 · “CrowdStrike”, 2024
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
Get the AlmanacQuestions
What is Murphy’s Law?
Murphy's Law states that anything that can go wrong will go wrong. It's not literal pessimism, but a reminder that with enough time and repetition, every possible mistake eventually happens.
How do you use Murphy’s Law?
Use it by rolling out changes in stages, building backups for travel and money, and designing your home and work so errors are hard to make. Focus on the failures that are most likely or most damaging, since you can't prepare for everything.
When does Murphy’s Law matter?
Murphy’s Law is one of the 32 mental models for risk, the situations where you ask: What could go wrong, and what will I do if it does? Within that, it belongs to “The unexpected”, alongside Black Swan Event, Boiling Frog and Butterfly Effect.
What is an example of Murphy’s Law?
Two stories show it at work: Captain Murphy’s sensors (1949) and CrowdStrike (2024). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to Murphy’s Law?
Margin of Safety, Unforced Error and Inversion. Murphy’s Law itself comes from general thinking.