No. 58 · Risk · Physics
Peak
Most rises top out, and the top is the hardest place to see it from.
In the Almanac
“Hubbert’s curve”, 1956 · “Myspace”, 2005–2011
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
Get the AlmanacQuestions
What is Peak?
A peak is the highest point of something, the moment a rising trend turns downward. Resources, products, companies and career phases all tend to top out eventually, and the peak rarely announces itself. From the top, everything looks its best just before it gets worse.
How do you use Peak?
To use it, prepare for transitions while things are going well. Learn new skills when your role feels easiest, question assets that seem destined to rise forever, and schedule hard work for your daily energy peaks. But peaks are not always final: new methods can create fresh highs.
When does Peak matter?
Peak is one of the 32 mental models for risk, the situations where you ask: What could go wrong, and what will I do if it does? Within that, it belongs to “The unexpected”, alongside Black Swan Event, Boiling Frog and Butterfly Effect.
What is an example of Peak?
Two stories show it at work: Hubbert’s curve (1956) and Myspace (2005–2011). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to Peak?
S-Curves, Law of Diminishing Returns and Lindy Effect. Peak itself comes from physics.