No. 209 · Strategy · General Thinking
Paradigm Shift
Sometimes a whole field’s basic assumptions are wrong, and progress means replacing the frame.
In the Almanac
“The doctor who drank bacteria”, 1982–2005 · “Moderna”, 2020
Both stories in full, three ways to use it and where it misleads.
Get the AlmanacQuestions
What is Paradigm Shift?
A Paradigm Shift, a term popularized by Thomas Kuhn, is when a field's basic assumptions are overturned, like discovering most ulcers are caused by bacteria, not stress. Old frameworks resist change until the evidence becomes impossible to ignore.
How do you use Paradigm Shift?
Use it by tracking results that don't fit, revisiting old beliefs about health and work, and questioning the stories you tell about yourself. Stay open, but demand strong evidence before you change the whole frame.
When does Paradigm Shift matter?
Paradigm Shift is one of the 56 mental models for strategy, the situations where you ask: How do I win when others want the same thing? Within that, it belongs to “Staying ahead of change”, alongside Creative Destruction, Cultural Evolution and Disruptive Innovations.
What is an example of Paradigm Shift?
Two stories show it at work: The doctor who drank bacteria (1982–2005) and Moderna (2020). Both are told in full in The Mental Models Daily Almanac, which has two stories for each of its 365 models.
Which mental models are related to Paradigm Shift?
Semmelweis Reflex, Falsification and First Principles Thinking. Paradigm Shift itself comes from general thinking.